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Leaked: Two Final Polls on Eve of Honduras Election

By: Fergus Hodgson - @FergHodgson - Nov 23, 2013, 11:31 pm

EspañolThis evening, just hours before voting stations open in Honduras, the PanAm Post received the results of two very recent presidential polls. The release of such polls is illegal within the nation, so we cannot reveal the leak, and the polling companies fear heavy-handed prosecution.

Unfortunately, this clouded situation has impeded our capacity to verify the details. We can, however, share the results — which have already caught attention on social media.

Both polls show the Partido Liberal candidate, Mauricio Villeda, in first place with 35 and 34 percent, respectively. Similarly, they show the Partido Nacional candidate, Juan Orlando Hernández, in second with 29 and 30 percent. Xiomara Castro de Zelaya has fallen back to a distant third with 21 and 19 percent.

The remaining candidates and undecided — assuming that was an option — constitute 15 and 13 percent of the vote. However, the first poll gives almost all of that portion, 12 percent, to Salvador Nasralla.

These results suggest a clear upswing for Villeda in the past two weeks. According to both, he gained 4 percentage points in one week, while Hernández remained steady at around 30 percent, and Castro lost three points.

The first, published under the name “Intelligence,” claims to be up to date as of Friday, November 22, but the “Mercaplus” poll only refers to it being conducted over the past week. The full details, as we have received them, are below and available for public consumption. These details do not include the sample sizes and polling methods, despite our best efforts to retrieve them given the limited time available.

COMUNICADO INTELLIGENCE

COMUNICADOS MERCAPLUS

Fergus Hodgson Fergus Hodgson

Fergus Hodgson was the founding editor in chief of the PanAm Post, up until January 2016, and he now studies finance at Tulane University in Louisiana and Francisco Marroquín University in Guatemala. Originally from New Zealand, he has also lived in Argentina, Canada, Colombia, Ecuador, Ireland, and the United States. Follow @FergHodgson and his Facebook page.